What are the odds of Captain Flint's Treasure on a single Treasure Island round?

1.85% per round, or about 1 in 54. Every round is independent, so this number never changes with what came before.

How many Treasure Island rounds until Captain Flint's Treasure is likely?

On average one hit every 54 rounds; half of all waits are over within 38 rounds. For a 90% chance of at least one hit you need 124 rounds, for 99% about 247.

Is Treasure Island "due" a Captain Flint's Treasure after a long wait?

No. A wait of 120 rounds without Captain Flint's Treasure happens 10.6% of the time from any starting point, and the next round still has the same 1.85% chance. The calculator tells you how unusual a wait is, not that a hit is coming.

Where do the theoretical and observed numbers come from?

Theoretical odds use the published rules (content-src/guides/treasure-island/rtp.md). Observed figures come from the rounds our tracker has recorded and change as new rounds arrive.

Treasure Island Bonus probability calculator

Captain Flint's Treasure lands on 1.85% of Treasure Island rounds (1 in 54). Pick an outcome and a number of rounds to see the odds, the average wait and how unusual the current drought is.

Game

OutcomeNext N roundsRounds since last hit

At least once in 50

84.8%

Chance per round

3.70%

1 in 27.0

Average wait

median 19 rounds

Rounds for 90% / 99%

62 / 123

A wait of 1 rounds without Ben's Lost Marbles has a 96.3% chance of happening from any starting point: common - waits this long happen all the time. The next round's chance is still 3.70%.

Formulas: P(at least one in N) = 1 - (1 - p)^N; average wait = 1 / p; P(wait ≥ k) = (1 - p)^k.

Theoretical p = 2 of 54 segments; source: content-src/guides/treasure-island/rtp.md.

Each round is independent: past results do not change the next round's odds, and no wait makes an outcome "due". Theoretical figures come from the provider's published rules; observed figures come from our own tracker and change as rounds arrive. 18+. Past results do not predict future outcomes. Play with money you can afford to lose.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Captain Flint's Treasure on a single Treasure Island round?: 1.85% per round, or about 1 in 54. Every round is independent, so this number never changes with what came before.
How many Treasure Island rounds until Captain Flint's Treasure is likely?: On average one hit every 54 rounds; half of all waits are over within 38 rounds. For a 90% chance of at least one hit you need 124 rounds, for 99% about 247.
Is Treasure Island "due" a Captain Flint's Treasure after a long wait?: No. A wait of 120 rounds without Captain Flint's Treasure happens 10.6% of the time from any starting point, and the next round still has the same 1.85% chance. The calculator tells you how unusual a wait is, not that a hit is coming.
Where do the theoretical and observed numbers come from?: Theoretical odds use the published rules (content-src/guides/treasure-island/rtp.md). Observed figures come from the rounds our tracker has recorded and change as new rounds arrive.

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